Intelligence System

Two isolated sources. One convergence signal.

Politica

Our political intelligence unit tracks congressional trading patterns, committee assignments, and legislative calendars. Every filing is scored using proprietary methodology. When a pattern emerges, the signal is flagged and escalated.

Proprietary Scoring

Every congressional trade is evaluated through a multi-factor scoring model. The methodology weighs committee relevance, historical accuracy, timing relative to legislative events, and transaction size. Each factor contributes to a composite conviction score from 0 to 100.

Politicians who consistently trade ahead of committee actions accumulate higher base scores over time. Those whose trades show no predictive correlation are filtered out automatically. The system learns, adapts, and refines its thresholds continuously based on outcome data.

Scores above 70 trigger automatic escalation to the committee. Below that threshold, signals are logged, tracked, and monitored — but they do not reach your dashboard until conviction rises.

Oracle

Our prediction market unit monitors whale activity, cluster patterns, and account age across major platforms. Synchronized bets from new accounts trigger deep analysis. Each cluster receives an Oracle Score from 0 to 100.

Cluster Conviction Scoring

Each detected whale cluster receives a composite conviction score based on account age patterns, coordinated timing, historical win rate, and position sizing relative to market liquidity. The model distinguishes between informed positioning and speculative noise.

The system identifies linked accounts through timing analysis, wallet age correlation, and behavioral similarity. When multiple recently created accounts simultaneously take large, coordinated positions on the same outcome, the cluster is flagged for deep analysis.

Every cluster is tracked through resolution. Outcomes are recorded. Win rates are updated. Over time, the system builds a living accuracy map of anonymous market participants — not by knowing who they are, but by recognizing how they behave.

Isolation by Design

Politica and Oracle never share data. They operate in complete isolation. This is by design — independent confirmation is the strongest signal in our system.

When both sources independently flag the same asset, the alert is escalated to the coordination room for committee review.

How We Grade Conviction

Not all signals are created equal. Our grading system reflects the depth of evidence behind each finding — from exploratory patterns worth watching to rare convergences that demand immediate attention.

At the highest level, a signal represents independent confirmation from multiple isolated sources. These are exceptionally rare. When they occur, the committee convenes within hours.

Below that, single-source high-conviction signals carry strong supporting data and clear directional thesis. They reach your dashboard with full analysis and committee commentary.

Moderate-conviction signals show clear patterns with some uncertainty in timing or magnitude. They are delivered with appropriate context and caveats.

At the exploratory level, interesting patterns are logged and monitored. They do not reach subscribers until conviction rises — but they are never discarded. Some of our strongest signals began as quiet observations weeks before the market moved.