Journal
Neutral market summaries — dated, sourced, with the data behind each one. Notes are listed by the market date they describe; those for 25 September to 24 October 2026 were written and published on 25 October 2026.
Week in Review: IWM Gains 1.96% While SPY and QQQ Slip
Weekly RecapFor the week ended Oct. 23, IWM rose 1.96% and DIA 0.44% while SPY fell 0.43% and QQQ 0.76%; MSFT, GOOG, AMZN and LLY report next, with a Fed decision.
Rates Week: 10-Year Yield Falls 13 Basis Points; Fed Meets Oct. 28
Rates & MacroFRED's 10-year yield fell from 5.09% on Oct. 16 to 4.96% on Oct. 22. Next week brings the Fed decision, Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation data.
Bitcoin Slips 0.38% Saturday; Russian Diesel Shipment in Headlines
Commodities & FXBitcoin traded at $80,769.67 on Oct. 24, down 0.38% from Friday; FRED's WTI spot price was $107.89 as of Oct. 20 and the broad dollar index 121.40.
Stocks End Week Lower as Energy ETF Gains and Oil Futures Rise
MarketsDIA fell 1.24% and SPY 0.52% on Oct. 23 while XLE rose 2.61% and WTI futures gained 3.82%; T led large-cap decliners with a 7.96% drop.
Michigan Sentiment Tops Estimate at 48.0; October PMIs Mixed
Rates & MacroMichigan consumer sentiment was 48.0 vs a 46.3 estimate on Oct. 23, and the S&P Global composite PMI matched forecasts at 57.6; inflation views held.
AXP, SLB and FCNCA Top EPS Estimates; AXP Shares Fall 3.67%
EarningsThree large caps reported on Oct. 23: AXP earned $4.68 a share vs $4.50 expected, SLB $0.64 vs $0.617 and FCNCA $55.37 vs $46.18; AXP shares fell 3.67%.
QQQ Falls 2.86% as Technology Drops; Staples ETF Gains 3.31%
MarketsSPY fell 1.18% and QQQ 2.86% on Oct. 22 as XLK dropped 3.29%, while consumer staples rose 3.31%; AMD and META led large-cap decliners.
10-Year Yield Ends at 4.96%; Jobless Claims Below Estimates
Rates & MacroFRED showed the 10-year yield at 4.96% on Oct. 22, and initial jobless claims were 194,000 against a 200,000 estimate; the VIX closed at 19.03.
PG, LMT and VLO Top Estimates; PHM, NVR and SNA Miss
EarningsPG earned $2.00 per share vs $1.88 expected on Oct. 22 and rose 5.58%; LMT, VLO and WDC beat, while PHM, NVR, SNA and VRSN posted EPS below estimates.
SPY Closes at 773.09 as Technology Leads; T and NFLX Drop
MarketsAll four major equity ETFs rose on Oct. 21, with QQQ up 1.05% and SPY up 0.53%; XLK led sectors while T and NFLX were the largest large-cap decliners.
20-Year Auction Yields 5.469%; Mortgage Applications Fall 5.3%
Rates & MacroThe 20-year bond auction yielded 5.469% on Oct. 21 and MBA mortgage applications fell 5.3%; the 10-year yield was 5.13% and the VIX closed at 16.68.
META, IBM and TXN Top EPS Estimates; MCO and LVS Fall Short
EarningsMETA earned $7.40 per share vs $6.54 expected on Oct. 21, IBM and TXN topped forecasts, and MCO and LVS were among large caps that missed EPS estimates.
Dow and Small Caps Rise as Ten of Eleven Sector ETFs Gain
MarketsDIA rose 1.05% and IWM 1.66% on Oct. 20 while QQQ dipped 0.10%; health care led ten advancing sector ETFs, and GE was the largest large-cap decliner.
Housing Starts and Pending Home Sales Fall Short of Estimates
Rates & MacroSeptember housing starts came in at 1.221 million vs 1.30 million expected and pending home sales fell 7.3%; the 10-year yield was 5.12% on Oct. 20.
GE, RTX and COF Top Estimates; GE Shares Fall 3.67%
EarningsMost of the large caps reporting on Oct. 20 beat EPS estimates, including GE, RTX, COF and NFLX; UAL, ELS and MLI came in below consensus.
Tech and Consumer ETFs Lead Narrow Advance as Most Sectors Fall
MarketsSPY rose 0.42% and QQQ 1.21% on Oct. 19 as XLK and XLY gained, while eight of eleven sector ETFs fell; AMZN led large-cap gainers with a 4.98% rise.
Homebuilder Sentiment Falls to 29; 10-Year Yield at 5.15%
Rates & MacroThe NAHB index fell to 29 in October against a 32 estimate on Oct. 19; FRED showed the 10-year yield at 5.15%, the 2-year at 4.77% and the VIX at 18.44.
FITB Tops EPS Estimate as STLD and AGNC Fall Short
EarningsSix large-cap companies reported on Oct. 19; FITB earned $1.13 per share vs $0.86 expected, while STLD and AGNC posted EPS below consensus estimates.
Week Ahead: Housing Data, Jobless Claims and October PMIs
Week AheadThe U.S. calendar for Oct. 19 to Oct. 23 includes housing starts, pending home sales, weekly jobless claims, S&P Global PMIs and Michigan sentiment.
Earnings Week Ahead: META, TSLA, NFLX and GE Among Reporters
EarningsLarge-cap reports set for Oct. 19 to Oct. 23 include GE, NFLX and RTX on Oct. 20, META and TSLA on Oct. 21, and PG and LMT on Oct. 22, per FMP.
In the News: China Growth, Russian Oil Waiver and AI Stock Debate
MarketsWeekend headlines on Oct. 18 covered China's third-quarter growth, oil and Russian sanctions, solar export controls, and debate over AI stocks and bonds.
Week in Review: QQQ Falls 5.52% in Week Ended Oct. 16
Weekly RecapFor the week ended Oct. 16, QQQ fell 5.52%, IWM 3.05% and SPY 1.97%, while DIA rose 0.58%; the 10-year Treasury yield fell 15 basis points to 5.09%.
Rates Week: 10-Year Yield Falls 15 Basis Points to 5.09%
Rates & MacroThe 10-year Treasury yield fell from 5.24% on Oct. 9 to 5.09% on Oct. 16, per FRED; the 2-year ended at 4.74% and the VIX at 19.99.
Bitcoin Edges Lower Saturday; WTI Spot at $108.21 as of Oct. 16
Commodities & FXBitcoin traded at $81,378.21 on Oct. 17, down 0.15% from Friday; FRED's WTI spot price was $108.21 and the broad dollar index 121.40 as of Oct. 16.
QQQ Falls 2.50% as Technology ETF Drops; Energy Gains
MarketsOn Oct. 16 SPY fell 1.11% and QQQ dropped 2.50% as XLK lost 3.02%; energy, utilities and staples ETFs rose, and PLTR led large-cap decliners.
VIX Closes at 19.99; Import Prices and Factory Output Top Estimates
Rates & MacroThe VIX closed at 19.99 on Oct. 16 and the 10-year yield was 5.09%; September import prices rose 1.1% and industrial output 0.7%, both above estimates.
TRV and Regional Banks Top Profit Estimates in Friday Reports
EarningsFive large-cap companies reported on Oct. 16 and all beat EPS estimates; TRV posted $9.18 per share against $7.39 expected on revenue of $12.41 billion.
Stocks Mostly Higher as Small Caps Lead and Tech Lags
MarketsSPY rose 0.28% and IWM gained 1.37% on Oct. 15 while QQQ edged down 0.13%; eight of eleven sector ETFs advanced, led by health care.
PPI and Retail Sales Top Forecasts; 10-Year Yield at 5.10%
Rates & MacroSeptember producer prices rose 1.3% vs a 0.5% estimate and retail sales gained 0.8% vs 0.3%; the 10-year Treasury yield was 5.10% on Oct. 15.
Ten Large-Cap Reporters Beat EPS Estimates, Led by PLD and AA
EarningsSCHW, PNC, BNY, USB and PLD were among ten large-cap companies reporting on Oct. 15; all topped EPS estimates, while revenue results were mixed.
Stocks Fall on CPI Day; QQQ Drops 1.97% and Tech Fund Loses 2.98%
MarketsSPY fell 1.08% and QQQ dropped 1.97% on Oct. 14 as Technology lost 2.98%; Health Care rose 2.53%, UNH gained 4.73% and ORCL plunged 8.83%.
September CPI Rises 3.7% Year Over Year vs 3.6% Estimate; Core at 2.6%
Rates & MacroSeptember CPI rose 3.7% from a year earlier vs a 3.6% estimate, data showed Oct. 14; core rose 2.6% vs 2.5% expected and the VIX climbed to 16.87.
BAC Misses EPS and Revenue Estimates; BLK and MS Top Forecasts
EarningsBAC reported EPS of $1.08 vs a $1.10 estimate on Oct. 14 and its shares fell 4.76%; BLK posted $15.93 vs $14.32 and MS $3.03 vs $2.93.
SPY Ends Nearly Flat as JNJ Falls 5.73%; Energy Leads Sectors
MarketsSPY closed nearly flat at 778.01 on Oct. 13 as QQQ and DIA each fell 0.33%; Energy rose 1.80%, Health Care fell 1.36% and JNJ dropped 5.73%.
Existing Home Sales Rise 1.5% to 3.99 Million; 10-Year at 5.21%
Rates & MacroExisting home sales rose 1.5% to 3.99 million in September vs a 3.95 million estimate, data showed on Oct. 13; the 10-year yield stood at 5.21%.
GS Tops EPS Estimate by $4.15; JPM Misses on EPS and Revenue
EarningsGS reported EPS of $17.01 vs a $12.86 estimate on Oct. 13, while JPM posted $5.75 vs $5.93; six of seven large-cap reporters beat EPS estimates.
Mixed Close: DIA Rises 0.35% While QQQ Slips 0.70% as Tech Lags
MarketsDIA rose 0.35% on Oct. 12 while QQQ fell 0.70% and SPY was nearly flat; Technology fell 1.22%, Energy led sectors and META gained 3.38% to 742.96.
IMF Warnings Lead Holiday Coverage; VIX at 15.21, HY Spread 3.11%
Rates & MacroNo U.S. data were released on Oct. 12; the VIX was 15.21 and the high-yield spread 3.11%, with the 10-year yield last at 5.24% as of Oct. 9.
Sector Watch: Energy Leads With 1.43% Gain as Technology Trails
SectorsEnergy rose 1.43% and Consumer Staples 1.18% on Oct. 12, while Technology fell 1.22%, a 2.65-point gap between the best and worst sector funds.
Week Ahead: September CPI, Retail Sales and PPI Headline the Calendar
Week AheadThe Oct. 12-16 calendar includes September CPI on Oct. 14, retail sales and PPI on Oct. 15, plus existing home sales, the Beige Book and Fed speeches.
Earnings Preview: JPM, GS, WFC and C Report Oct. 13; BAC, MS Follow
EarningsLarge-cap reports scheduled for Oct. 13-16 include JPM, JNJ, UNH, GS, WFC and C on Oct. 13 and BAC, MS and BLK on Oct. 14, with EPS and revenue estimates.
In the News: Oil, Bond Yields and Bank Earnings Lead Weekend Coverage
MarketsWeekend headlines on Oct. 11 covered oil after an 'energy ceasefire' declaration, Russian diesel, bond yields, home prices and upcoming bank reports.
Weekly Recap: SPY Gains 1.16% While Small-Cap IWM Slips 0.92%
Weekly RecapSPY rose 1.16% in the week ended Oct. 9, DIA 0.98% and QQQ 0.23%, while small-cap IWM fell 0.92%; the 10-year yield ended 4 bp lower at 5.24%.
10-Year Yield Ends Week 4 bp Lower at 5.24%; CPI Due Oct. 14
Rates & MacroThe 10-year Treasury yield fell 4 bp over the week to 5.24% as of Oct. 9; the VIX stood at 14.84 and the September CPI report is scheduled for Oct. 14.
Commodities Week: WTI Spot at $98.73; Bitcoin at $82,910.80
Commodities & FXFRED's WTI spot price stood at $98.73 as of Oct. 9 and bitcoin edged up 0.44% to $82,910.80 on Saturday, Oct. 10; OPEC and EIA reports are due next week.
Stocks Close Higher Friday; T and VZ Plunge More Than 10%
MarketsSPY rose 0.60% and DIA gained 0.87% on Oct. 9 as nine of 11 sectors advanced; PLTR led large caps with a 5.17% gain while T and VZ fell over 10%.
VIX Ends Week at 14.84; 10-Year Yield at 5.24%, HY Spread 3.11%
Rates & MacroThe VIX closed at 14.84 on Oct. 9, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.24% and the high-yield spread at 3.11%; CFTC data showed S&P 500 net shorts grew.
DAL Misses EPS Estimate by $0.05 but Revenue Tops Forecast
EarningsDAL reported EPS of $1.72 vs a $1.77 estimate on Oct. 9, while revenue of $20.20 billion exceeded the $17.64 billion consensus by 14.49%.
QQQ Falls 1.34% as Tech Lags; Eight of 11 Sectors Advance
MarketsQQQ fell 1.34% on Oct. 8 and SPY slipped 0.42% while DIA edged up 0.12%; Technology fell 1.79% and ORCL dropped 5.48% as eight sector funds rose.
Jobless Claims at 197,000 vs 200,000 Estimate; 10-Year Yield at 5.22%
Rates & MacroInitial jobless claims came in at 197,000 on Oct. 8, below a 200,000 estimate; the 10-year yield stood at 5.22% and a 30-year bond auction priced at 5.62%.
PEP Beats EPS and Revenue Estimates; Shares Rise 3.73%
EarningsPEP reported EPS of $2.34 vs a $2.29 estimate and revenue of $25.27 billion vs $24.95 billion on Oct. 8; the stock rose 3.73% to 128.34.
Stocks Slip as Industrials Lag; CAT Falls 5.75%
MarketsSPY fell 0.24% and IWM dropped 1.29% on Oct. 7 as ten of 11 sector funds declined; Health Care was the lone gainer and CAT fell 5.75% to 813.83.
10-Year Note Auction Clears at 5.30%; Inflation Expectations at 3.9%
Rates & MacroA 10-year note auction priced at 5.30% on Oct. 7 vs 4.83% at the prior sale; consumer inflation expectations rose to 3.9%, above a 3.7% estimate.
Oil Futures Fall 1.30%, Gold Drops 1.11% and Bitcoin Loses 2.65%
Commodities & FXWTI futures fell 1.30% to $88.28 on Oct. 7, and EIA data showed a 3.19 million crude stock draw; gold fell 1.11% to $4,140.70 and bitcoin dropped 2.65%.
Large Caps Rise as Utilities Lead Sectors; IWM Slips 0.72%
MarketsSPY rose 0.55% to 779.09 on Oct. 6 while small-cap IWM fell 0.72%; Utilities gained 2.98% to lead sectors and CSCO rose 4.54% to top large caps.
Trade Deficit Widens to $105.6 Billion; 10-Year Yield at 5.27%
Rates & MacroThe U.S. trade deficit for August was $105.6 billion vs a $102 billion estimate on Oct. 6; the 10-year yield stood at 5.27% and the VIX at 15.01.
STZ Tops EPS and Revenue Estimates; RPM Beats on EPS
EarningsSTZ reported EPS of $3.74 vs a $3.62 estimate and revenue of $2.63 billion on Oct. 6, while RPM posted EPS of $1.98 vs $1.95 with revenue just short.
Stocks Advance Monday as QQQ Leads and Ten of 11 Sectors Rise
MarketsSPY rose 0.67% and QQQ gained 0.88% on Oct. 5 as ten of 11 sector ETFs advanced; ISRG led large caps with a 3.71% gain while MRK fell 3.30%.
10-Year Yield at 5.31%; ISM Services PMI Prints 54.9 vs 55.0 Estimate
Rates & MacroThe 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.31% on Oct. 5 as the ISM services PMI came in at 54.9, just below a 55.0 estimate, and its prices index rose to 74.
Oil Futures Fall 1.84% as Gold Edges Lower and Bitcoin Slips
Commodities & FXWTI crude futures fell 1.84% to $89.43 on Oct. 5, gold edged down 0.13% to $4,156.80 and bitcoin slipped 0.88%, while the UUP dollar fund rose 0.35%.
Week Ahead: ISM Services, Trade Balance, FOMC Minutes and Claims
Week AheadThe week of October 5 brings the ISM services PMI, August trade data, FOMC minutes and weekly jobless claims, plus speeches from seven Fed officials.
Earnings Preview: PEP, DAL, STZ and RPM on Next Week's Calendar
EarningsFour large caps are scheduled to report from October 6 to October 9, led by PEP with a $2.29 EPS estimate and DAL with consensus EPS of $1.77.
In the News: Treasury Yields, Saudi Oil Prices and Alaska LNG
MarketsOctober 4 headlines from CNBC, Reuters, WSJ and Barron's covered Treasury yields, Saudi oil pricing for Asia, the Alaska LNG deal and the midterms.
Weekly Recap: QQQ Gains 0.68% While DIA, SPY and IWM Fall
Weekly RecapFor the week ended October 2, QQQ rose 0.68% while DIA fell 1.23%, SPY 0.22% and IWM 0.16%; the 10-year yield rose 11 basis points to 5.28%.
Rates Week: 10-Year Yield Rises 11 Basis Points to 5.28%
Rates & MacroThe 10-year Treasury yield rose 11 basis points over the week to 5.28% as of October 2; the 2-year stood at 4.83% and the VIX at 15.31.
Bitcoin Edges Up 0.28% Saturday; WTI Spot at $97.89 as of Oct. 2
Commodities & FXBitcoin rose 0.28% to $84,742.22 on October 3, while the latest WTI spot and broad dollar readings were $97.89 and 121.38 as of October 2.
Stocks Rise After Jobs Report; QQQ Gains 1.02%, TSLA Up 4.65%
MarketsAll four index ETFs rose on October 2 as QQQ gained 1.02% and ten of eleven sectors advanced; TSLA and TXN led large caps while ACN fell 6.31%.
Payrolls Rise 29,000, Short of 90,000 Estimate; Jobless Rate 4.2%
Rates & MacroNonfarm payrolls rose 29 thousand in September versus a 90 thousand estimate, unemployment rose to 4.2%, and wage growth slowed to 3.0% on the year.
Ten of Eleven Sectors Rise; Consumer Discretionary and Tech Lead
SectorsConsumer Discretionary rose 1.13% and Technology 1.01% on October 2 as ten of eleven sector ETFs advanced; Health Care was the lone decliner.
Stocks Edge Higher as ACN Soars 15.78%; Energy Leads Sectors
MarketsAll four index ETFs rose on October 1, led by IWM at 0.41%; Energy gained 1.95% and ACN rose 15.78%, while DIS fell 3.40%.
ISM Manufacturing at 54.5, Prices Index 77.9; Claims Fall to 197K
Rates & MacroThe ISM manufacturing PMI was 54.5 on October 1 versus a 55 estimate, its prices gauge reached 77.9, and initial jobless claims fell to 197 thousand.
NKE Beats EPS Estimate but Revenue Trails; MKC Tops Both
EarningsNKE earned $0.48 a share on October 1 versus a $0.43 estimate, with revenue of $11.21 billion below forecast; MKC beat on both EPS and revenue.
Tech Holds Up as Ten Sectors Decline; DIA Falls 0.84%
MarketsOnly Technology among eleven sector ETFs rose on September 30; SPY slipped 0.21% and DIA fell 0.84%, while QQQ gained 0.25%, ACN led large caps.
Core PCE Inflation at 3.0%, Below Estimate; Q2 GDP Growth 2.2%
Rates & MacroCore PCE prices rose 3.0% year over year in August, below the 3.3% estimate, and second-quarter GDP growth was 2.2% on September 30.
MU, JBL and FDS Top Estimates; MU EPS $33.42 vs $31.77 Expected
EarningsMU, JBL and FDS all beat EPS and revenue estimates on September 30; MU posted $33.42 a share on $54.23 billion of revenue against $51.33 billion.
SPY Edges Lower While QQQ Gains; Utilities Lead Sectors
MarketsSPY slipped 0.18% on September 29 while QQQ rose 0.19%; Utilities gained 1.17%, and ORCL and META led large caps as AAPL fell 2.66%.
Consumer Confidence Falls Short at 81.9; JOLTS Openings at 7.079M
Rates & MacroConference Board confidence came in at 81.9 against an 89.2 estimate on September 29, and JOLTS openings were 7.079 million; the 10-year was 5.26%.
CCL Tops Estimates With EPS of $1.43 on $8.44 Billion Revenue
EarningsCCL reported earnings of $1.43 per share on September 29, above the $1.35 consensus, with revenue of $8.44 billion versus an $8.39 billion estimate.
Stocks Slide Monday as QQQ Drops 1.07%; QCOM Falls 7.17%
MarketsAll four major index ETFs fell on September 28, led by a 1.07% drop in QQQ, as eight of eleven sectors declined and QCOM lost 7.17%.
10-Year Yield at 5.24% as Dallas Fed Index Tops Estimate
Rates & MacroThe 10-year yield stood at 5.24% and the 2-year at 4.92% on September 28; the Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at 9.8 against an estimate of 1.
Gold Falls 3.54% to $4,168.40 as Oil Futures Edge Higher
Commodities & FXGold fell 3.54% to $4,168.40 on September 28, while WTI futures edged up 0.21% to $92.60 and bitcoin slipped 1.19% from its Sunday level.
Week Ahead: PCE Inflation, GDP, Jobs Report and 16 Fed Speeches
Week AheadThe week of September 28 brings JOLTS, PCE inflation, second-quarter GDP, ISM manufacturing and September payrolls, plus more than a dozen Fed speeches.
Earnings Preview: MU, NKE, CCL and JBL Head Large-Cap Reports
EarningsSeven large-cap reports are scheduled for September 29 to October 1, including MU with a $31.77 EPS estimate and NKE at about $0.43 per share.
In the News: Iran Deal Rejection, China Truce Talks and BOJ Minutes
MarketsWeekend headlines on September 27 covered oil after Trump rejected an Iran peace deal, U.S.-China truce talks, BOJ minutes and Asian markets.
Weekly Recap: QQQ Gains 3.20% While Small Caps Slip
Weekly RecapFor the week ended September 25, QQQ rose 3.20%, SPY 1.27% and DIA 0.31%, while IWM fell 0.75%; the 10-year yield rose 16 basis points.
Rates Week: 10-Year Yield Rises 16 Basis Points to 5.17%
Rates & MacroThe 10-year Treasury yield rose 16 basis points over the week to 5.17% as of September 25, with the 2-year at 4.81% and the VIX at 14.87.
Bitcoin Edges Up 0.39% Saturday; Oil, Dollar Readings as of Sept. 25
Commodities & FXBitcoin rose 0.39% to $84,416.65 on September 26, while the latest WTI spot and broad dollar readings were $85.23 and 120.33 as of September 25.
Stocks Close Higher Friday as DIA Gains 0.94%, Industrials Lead
MarketsSPY rose 0.54% and DIA gained 0.94% on September 25 as eight of eleven sector ETFs advanced; BKNG and QCOM led large-cap gainers.
10-Year Yield at 5.17%; Michigan Sentiment Comes in at 48.1
Rates & MacroThe 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.17% on September 25 as durable goods orders and Michigan sentiment both came in above consensus estimates.
WTI Futures Fall 2.33% as Gold Edges Up to $4,321.20
Commodities & FXWTI crude futures fell 2.33% to $92.41 on September 25 while gold rose 0.54%; the dollar proxy UUP and bitcoin both ended slightly lower.
Neutral market summaries for information only; not investment advice.