10-Year Yield at 5.17%; Michigan Sentiment Comes in at 48.1

The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.17% on Friday, September 25, 2026, according to FRED data, while the 2-year yield was 4.81%. That left the spread between the two maturities at 36 basis points. The effective federal funds rate was 3.88%, putting the 10-year yield 129 basis points above the overnight policy benchmark.

Risk gauges were subdued. The VIX volatility index closed the day's observation at 14.87, and the high-yield option-adjusted spread was 2.93 percentage points. The Fed's nominal broad dollar index stood at 120.33.

On the data calendar, August durable goods orders were unchanged at 0% month over month, against a consensus estimate of a 0.4% decline and a prior reading of 0.9%. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 1.6%, compared with an estimate of 0.5% and 0.6% previously.

The University of Michigan's September consumer sentiment index came in at 48.1, above the 47.6 estimate but below the prior 51.7. The current conditions gauge was 50.9 versus an expected 49.5, and the expectations component was 46.3 against an estimate of 45.8. Inflation expectations matched forecasts: the 1-year measure was 4.6%, up from 4.0% previously, and the 5-year measure was 3.4%, compared with 3.3% before.

Weekly CFTC data showed speculative net positions in S&P 500 futures at -133.2 thousand contracts, compared with -100.5 thousand a week earlier, while Nasdaq 100 net positions rose to 56.1 thousand from 33.7 thousand.

A WSJ headline published during the session read "Yields Subside, Stocks Breathe Easier."

Data

Data: FRED, FMP. Figures are close-to-close unless stated.

In the news

• WSJ: Yields Subside, Stocks Breathe Easier