10-Year Yield at 5.24% as Dallas Fed Index Tops Estimate

On Monday, September 28, 2026, FRED data showed the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.24% and the 2-year yield at 4.92%, leaving the 10-year/2-year spread at 32 basis points. The effective federal funds rate was 3.88%.

Among risk gauges, the VIX volatility index stood at 16.07, and the high-yield option-adjusted spread was 3.02 percentage points. The Fed's nominal broad dollar index was 120.70, while the dollar-tracking ETF UUP rose 0.28% to 28.70.

In economic data, the Dallas Fed manufacturing index for September came in at 9.8, well above the consensus estimate of 1 but below the previous reading of 11.6.

At the Treasury's weekly bill auctions, the 3-month bill sold at a rate of 4.11%, compared with 4.015% at the previous sale and an estimate of 4.009%. The 6-month bill was auctioned at 4.285%, up from 4.155% previously.

Measured against the effective fed funds rate of 3.88%, the 10-year yield was 136 basis points higher and the 2-year yield 104 basis points higher. The 3-month bill auction rate of 4.11% was 23 basis points above the effective rate. Barron's closing column ran under the headline "Review & Preview: Rainy Days and Mondays."

Headlines during the day focused on the bond market. A WSJ headline read "Treasury Yields Climb to Fresh Highs While Oil Rises," and another WSJ article was titled "U.S. Stocks Slide as Treasury Selloff Deepens." Stock index ETFs closed lower across the board, with SPY down 0.74%.

Data

Data: FRED, FMP. Figures are close-to-close unless stated.

In the news

• WSJ: Treasury Yields Climb to Fresh Highs While Oil Rises
• WSJ: U.S. Stocks Slide as Treasury Selloff Deepens