Consumer Confidence Falls Short at 81.9; JOLTS Openings at 7.079M
Conference Board confidence came in at 81.9 against an 89.2 estimate on September 29, and JOLTS openings were 7.079 million; the 10-year was 5.26%.
Two closely watched U.S. indicators came in below expectations on Tuesday, September 29, 2026. The Conference Board consumer confidence index for September was 81.9, compared with a consensus estimate of 89.2 and a prior reading of 88.6. August JOLTS job openings totaled 7.079 million, below the 7.23 million estimate and down from 7.335 million. Job quits were 3.066 million, against an estimate of 3 million.
Housing data showed firmer prices. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index rose 2.5% year over year in July, above the 2.2% estimate, though it was flat month over month against an expected 0.2% gain. The House Price Index rose 2.6% from a year earlier and 0.3% from the prior month.
Regional surveys were weaker. The Dallas Fed services index for September was -1.8, compared with an estimate of 1 and 4.2 previously, while its revenues index was -0.9. Redbook same-store sales rose 8.2% year over year.
In the Treasury market, FRED data showed the 10-year yield at 5.26% and the 2-year at 4.89%, a spread of 37 basis points. The effective fed funds rate was 3.88%. The 52-week bill auctioned at 4.4%, up from 3.98% at the prior sale. The VIX was 16.04, the high-yield option-adjusted spread was 3.08 percentage points and the broad dollar index was 121.03.
Industry data showed API crude inventories rose by 1.019 million barrels, against an expected draw of 1.9 million. Barron's closing column was titled "Review & Preview: Yields Beat Doves," and a WSJ currency report cited "Reduced Fed Rate-Hike Bets" in its headline.
Data
| Release | Actual | Estimate | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| CB Consumer Confidence (Sep) | 81.9 | 89.2 | 88.6 |
| JOLTs Job Openings (Aug) | 7.079M | 7.23M | 7.335M |
| Case-Shiller Home Price YoY (Jul) | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| Dallas Fed Services Index (Sep) | -1.8 | 1 | 4.2 |
| API Crude Oil Stock Change | 1.019M | -1.9M | 1.786M |
| 10-year Treasury (FRED) | 5.26% | ||
| 2-year Treasury (FRED) | 4.89% |
Data: FMP, FRED. Figures are close-to-close unless stated.
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