Jobless Claims at 197,000 vs 200,000 Estimate; 10-Year Yield at 5.22%
Initial jobless claims came in at 197,000 on Oct. 8, below a 200,000 estimate; the 10-year yield stood at 5.22% and a 30-year bond auction priced at 5.62%.
Initial jobless claims totaled 197,000 in the week to Oct. 3, according to data released on Thursday, Oct. 8, below an estimate of 200,000 and the prior week's 199,000. The four-week average was 198,000, in line with expectations. Continuing claims for the week to Sept. 26 rose to 1,716,000, above an estimate of 1,710,000 and up from 1,699,000.
FRED data showed the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.22% and the 2-year at 4.75%, a spread of 0.47 percentage point. The effective federal funds rate was 3.88%. The 30-year bond auction drew a high yield of 5.62%, compared with 5.31% at the previous sale. Several Wall Street Journal headlines addressed bonds, including “Why the Battered Bond Market is Finally Getting a Reprieve” and “Winds Pick Up, Yields Tick Down.”
The VIX closed at 15.41 and the high-yield option-adjusted spread was 3.15%. The Fed's broad dollar index stood at 121.45, and the UUP dollar fund fell 0.21% to 28.98.
Other data showed wholesale inventories rose 0.5% in August, below a 0.7% estimate, while wholesale sales increased 1.8%. The 30-year mortgage rate rose to 7.40% from 7.28%, and the 15-year rate rose to 6.73% from 6.60%. Natural gas storage increased by 85 billion, above a 79 billion estimate. The central bank balance sheet stood at $6.748 trillion as of Oct. 7.
Outside the U.S., the Wall Street Journal reported “Investors Abandoning French Government Bonds for German Bunds.”
Data
| Release | Actual | Estimate | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Jobless Claims (Oct/03) | 197 K | 200 K | 199 K |
| Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (Oct/03) | 198 K | 198 K | 200.5 K |
| Continuing Jobless Claims (Sep/26) | 1716 K | 1710 K | 1699 K |
| Wholesale Inventories MoM (Aug) | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.4% |
| 30-Year Bond Auction | 5.618% | n/a | 5.308% |
| 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Oct/08) | 7.4% | n/a | 7.28% |
Data: FMP, FRED. Figures are close-to-close unless stated.
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