10-Year Yield Ends Week 4 bp Lower at 5.24%; CPI Due Oct. 14

The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week of Oct. 5 to Oct. 9 at 5.24%, down 4 basis points from 5.28% on Friday, Oct. 2, according to FRED data. The 2-year yield stood at 4.80% as of Oct. 9, leaving the 10-year/2-year spread at 0.44 percentage point.

The effective federal funds rate was 3.88% as of Oct. 10. Other gauges as of Oct. 9 showed the VIX at 14.84, the high-yield option-adjusted spread at 3.11% and the Fed's broad dollar index at 121.60.

Treasury yields drew attention in Washington and on Wall Street. Fox Business aired a segment titled “Scott Bessent responds to Elizabeth Warren letter requesting information on rise in the 10-year treasury yield.” CNBC reported “JPMorgan makes bullish call in fixed income space, suggests it's a once in a generation opportunity.”

The coming week's economic calendar centers on inflation. The September consumer price index is scheduled for Oct. 14, with a consensus estimate of 3.6% for the year-over-year inflation rate, up from 3.4%, and 2.5% for core inflation, versus 2.4% previously. The month-over-month estimates are 0.6% for headline and 0.2% for core. The Beige Book is also scheduled for Oct. 14.

On Oct. 15, September retail sales are expected to rise 0.3% month over month after a 1.3% gain, and the producer price index is forecast at 0.5%. Initial jobless claims for the week to Oct. 10 carry an estimate of 200,000, versus 198,000 previously. Several Fed officials, including Waller, Barkin, Collins, Hammack and Goolsbee, have speeches on the calendar.

Data

Data: FMP, FRED. Figures are close-to-close unless stated.

In the news

• Fox Business: Scott Bessent responds to Elizabeth Warren letter requesting information on rise in the 10-year treasury yield
• CNBC: JPMorgan makes bullish call in fixed income space, suggests it's a once in a generation opportunity