September CPI Rises 3.7% Year Over Year vs 3.6% Estimate; Core at 2.6%
September CPI rose 3.7% from a year earlier vs a 3.6% estimate, data showed Oct. 14; core rose 2.6% vs 2.5% expected and the VIX climbed to 16.87.
Consumer prices rose faster than expected in September, according to data released on Wednesday, Oct. 14. The annual inflation rate was 3.7%, above the 3.6% estimate and up from 3.4% in August. Core inflation was 2.6% year over year, compared with an estimate of 2.5% and 2.4% previously.
On a monthly basis, headline CPI rose 0.6%, matching the estimate and up from 0.4%. Core CPI increased 0.3%, above the 0.2% forecast and unchanged from the previous month. The seasonally adjusted CPI index stood at 336.3, versus an estimate of 335.8. Real earnings fell 0.5% month over month, after a 0.2% gain.
FRED data showed the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.19% and the 2-year at 4.82%, narrowing the 10-year/2-year spread to 0.37 percentage point, or 37 basis points. The effective federal funds rate was 3.88%. The VIX rose to 16.87, and the high-yield option-adjusted spread widened to 3.25%. The Fed's broad dollar index was 122.00, and the UUP fund rose 0.35% to 29.12.
A Wall Street Journal headline read “Asian Currencies Mixed, But May be Weighed by Higher Prospects of Fed Rate Hikes,” and Barron's headlined its wrap “Review & Preview: Hot Inflation Leaves Investors Blistering in the Sun.”
In other data, the MBA 30-year mortgage rate was 7.50%, compared with 7.49% the prior week, and mortgage applications fell 2.7%. The Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI fell to 45.18 from 50.45. After the close, the API reported a crude inventory change of -11.1 million, against an estimate of 1.9 million.
Data
| Release | Actual | Estimate | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate YoY (Sep) | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% |
| Core Inflation Rate YoY (Sep) | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| Inflation Rate MoM (Sep) | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Core Inflation Rate MoM (Sep) | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| CPI s.a (Sep) | 336.3 | 335.8 | 334.13 |
| Real Earnings MoM (Sep) | -0.5% | n/a | 0.2% |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Oct/09) | 7.5% | n/a | 7.49% |
| API Crude Oil Stock Change (Oct/09) | -11.1 M | 1.9 M | -2.09 M |
Data: FMP, FRED. Figures are close-to-close unless stated.
In the news
Neutral market summary for information only; not investment advice.
← All journal entries