VIX Closes at 19.99; Import Prices and Factory Output Top Estimates

Volatility and inflation data were in focus on Friday, Oct. 16. The VIX closed at 19.99, according to FRED. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.09% and the 2-year at 4.74%, a 10-year/2-year spread of 35 basis points. The high-yield option-adjusted spread was 3.31%, the effective federal funds rate 3.88% and the broad dollar index 121.40.

Import prices rose 1.1% in September, above the 0.8% estimate, and were up 8.1% from a year earlier against a 7.9% forecast. Export prices increased 2.2% on the month versus a 1.0% estimate, and 11.6% year over year versus 9.4% expected.

Industrial production rose 0.7% in September, ahead of the 0.4% estimate and August's 0.1% gain. Manufacturing output grew 0.3%, in line with forecasts, and capacity utilization rose to 76.9% from 76.4%, above the 76.5% estimate.

The federal government recorded a September budget deficit of $27 billion, narrower than the $29 billion estimate and the prior month's $167 billion. Treasury International Capital data showed net long-term inflows of $279.2 billion in August, against a $75.2 billion estimate and a net outflow of $27.9 billion the previous month. CFTC data showed speculative net positions in S&P 500 futures at -141,000, compared with -154,100 a week earlier.

CNBC reported that Wall Street's fear gauge is "ripping" and that traders see it going even higher. A Barron's headline said bonds offer ballast and more now that yields have risen.

Data

Data: FMP, FRED. Figures are close-to-close unless stated.

In the news

• CNBC: Wall Street's fear gauge is ripping. Traders see it going even higher
• Barron's: Bonds Offer Ballast and More, Now That Yields Have Risen