Homebuilder Sentiment Falls to 29; 10-Year Yield at 5.15%
The NAHB index fell to 29 in October against a 32 estimate on Oct. 19; FRED showed the 10-year yield at 5.15%, the 2-year at 4.77% and the VIX at 18.44.
Homebuilder confidence weakened in October, according to data released on Monday, Oct. 19. The NAHB Housing Market Index fell to 29 from 32, below the consensus estimate of 32. It was the only major U.S. economic release on a light calendar.
Treasury bill auctions drew slightly higher rates than the prior sales. The 3-month bill auction priced at 4.095%, compared with 4.085% at the previous auction, and the 6-month bill at 4.22%, up from 4.20%.
FRED data for Oct. 19 showed the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.15% and the 2-year at 4.77%, a 10-year/2-year spread of 38 basis points. The effective federal funds rate was 3.88%. The VIX closed at 18.44 and the high-yield option-adjusted spread was 3.29%. The latest broad trade-weighted dollar index reading was 121.40 as of Oct. 16, while the dollar-tracking UUP ETF rose 0.28% to 29.00 on the day.
The WTI crude spot price was $110.01 a barrel as of Oct. 19, according to FRED. WTI crude futures rose 2.22% to $103.66, and gold futures fell 0.50% to $4,160.10. Reuters reported that oil eased as markets assessed a potential waiver on Russian energy and Middle East supply risks.
Abroad, the WSJ reported that a Bank of Canada survey recorded a notable rise in inflation expectations. A separate WSJ headline said the Nikkei fell amid lingering worry over the AI boom amid elevated bond yields.
Data
| Measure | Value | Estimate / prior |
|---|---|---|
| NAHB Housing Market Index (Oct) | 29 | Est. 32 / prior 32 |
| 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.095% | Prior 4.085% |
| 6-Month Bill Auction | 4.22% | Prior 4.20% |
| 10-Year Treasury | 5.15% | |
| 2-Year Treasury | 4.77% | |
| VIX | 18.44 | |
| High-yield OAS | 3.29% |
Data: FMP, FRED. Figures are close-to-close unless stated.
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