Michigan Sentiment Tops Estimate at 48.0; October PMIs Mixed
Michigan consumer sentiment was 48.0 vs a 46.3 estimate on Oct. 23, and the S&P Global composite PMI matched forecasts at 57.6; inflation views held.
U.S. survey data released on Friday, Oct. 23, were close to expectations. The Michigan consumer sentiment index for October came in at 48.0, above the 46.3 estimate and little changed from 48.1 in September. The current conditions index was 46.7 versus a 44.7 estimate, down from 50.9, while the expectations index rose to 48.8 from 46.3, above the 47.3 forecast.
Inflation expectations in the Michigan survey matched forecasts. One-year expectations were 4.7%, compared with 4.6% previously, and five-year expectations were 3.5%, compared with 3.4%.
The S&P Global Composite PMI for October was 57.6, in line with the estimate and down from 58.4. The services PMI was 57.9 against a 58.0 forecast and a prior 58.8, while the manufacturing PMI rose to 56.0 from 55.9, above the 55.5 estimate. The Baker Hughes oil rig count was 460, compared with 459 a week earlier.
The data used for this note had no Oct. 23 readings for most FRED rate series. As of Oct. 22, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.96%, the 2-year 4.65%, the VIX 19.03 and the high-yield option-adjusted spread 3.40%. The 10-year/2-year spread was 31 basis points as of Oct. 23. The effective federal funds rate was 3.88% as of Oct. 22.
In currency markets, the dollar-tracking UUP ETF rose 0.21% to 28.96. Reuters reported that QatarEnergy was in talks to buy U.S. LNG from Woodside's Louisiana plant.
Data
| Release | Actual | Estimate | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct) | 48.0 | 46.3 | 48.1 |
| Michigan 1-Yr Inflation Exp. | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% |
| Michigan 5-Yr Inflation Exp. | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% |
| S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct) | 57.6 | 57.6 | 58.4 |
| S&P Global Services PMI (Oct) | 57.9 | 58.0 | 58.8 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 56.0 | 55.5 | 55.9 |
| 10-Year Treasury (Oct. 22) | 4.96% |
Data: FMP, FRED. Figures are close-to-close unless stated.
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Neutral market summary for information only; not investment advice.
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