ISM Manufacturing at 54.5, Prices Index 77.9; Claims Fall to 197K

U.S. manufacturing and labor data released on Thursday, October 1, 2026, came in mixed relative to forecasts. The ISM manufacturing PMI for September was 54.5, slightly below the consensus estimate of 55 and the prior 54.6. Within the survey, the prices index rose to 77.9, well above the 72.3 estimate and 71.1 previously. New orders were 55.3 versus an expected 53.9, and the employment index was 52.7 against a forecast of 51.5. The S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 55.9, below the 57 estimate.

Initial jobless claims totaled 197 thousand in the latest week, below the 200 thousand estimate and the prior 198 thousand. Continuing claims were 1.701 million, compared with an expected 1.73 million, and the four-week average was 200 thousand. Challenger job cuts for September were 43.281 thousand, compared with 52.881 thousand previously.

Construction spending rose 0.9% in August, against a forecast of no change. Total vehicle sales were 16 million, below the 16.6 million estimate. The 30-year mortgage rate rose to 7.28% from 7.03%, and the 15-year rate rose to 6.6% from 6.42%.

FRED data showed the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.24% and the 2-year at 4.78%, leaving a spread of 46 basis points. The effective fed funds rate was 3.88%, the VIX 16.39 and the high-yield option-adjusted spread 3.24 percentage points. The broad dollar index stood at 121.79, while the dollar ETF UUP rose 0.66%.

Fed commentary drew attention. Barron's reported, according to its headline, that Dallas Fed's Logan says interest rates need to be half percent higher, and Fox Business aired a segment titled "Fed's Neel Kashkari says inflation is NOT AI-driven."

Data

Data: FMP, FRED. Figures are close-to-close unless stated.

In the news

• Barron's: Dallas Fed's Logan Says Interest Rates Need to Be Half Percent Higher
• Fox Business: Fed's Neel Kashkari says inflation is NOT AI-driven