Payrolls Rise 29,000, Short of 90,000 Estimate; Jobless Rate 4.2%
Nonfarm payrolls rose 29 thousand in September versus a 90 thousand estimate, unemployment rose to 4.2%, and wage growth slowed to 3.0% on the year.
The U.S. September employment report, released on Friday, October 2, 2026, showed hiring well below expectations. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 29 thousand, compared with a consensus estimate of 90 thousand and a prior reading of 133 thousand. That was a shortfall of 61 thousand against the forecast. Private payrolls increased by 46 thousand, versus an expected 85 thousand, while government payrolls fell by 17 thousand. Manufacturing payrolls rose 9 thousand.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, against an estimate of 4.1%. The broader U-6 measure eased to 7.6% from 7.7%, and the participation rate rose to 61.8% from 61.6%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% on the month, below the 0.3% estimate, and 3.0% from a year earlier, compared with an expected 3.2%. Average weekly hours were 34.4.
Other data showed factory orders up 0.1% in August, in line with the estimate. Orders excluding transportation rose 0.3%.
In the Treasury market, FRED data showed the 10-year yield at 5.28% and the 2-year at 4.83%, a spread of 45 basis points. The effective fed funds rate was 3.88%. The VIX stood at 15.31, and the high-yield option-adjusted spread was 3.10 percentage points. The broad dollar index was 121.38, while UUP slipped 0.24% to 28.89.
A WSJ headline described the session as "U.S. Stocks Rise as Jobs Report Tempers Rate Outlook," and another WSJ headline read "Nasdaq Leads Stocks Higher as Hiring Softens."
Data
| Release | Actual | Estimate | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non Farm Payrolls (Sep) | 29K | 90K | 133K |
| Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Sep) | 46K | 85K | 89K |
| Unemployment Rate (Sep) | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Sep) | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% |
| Participation Rate (Sep) | 61.8% | 61.4% | 61.6% |
| 10-year Treasury (FRED) | 5.28% | ||
| 2-year Treasury (FRED) | 4.83% |
Data: FMP, FRED. Figures are close-to-close unless stated.
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