10-Year Yield at 5.31%; ISM Services PMI Prints 54.9 vs 55.0 Estimate

Treasury yields held at elevated levels on Monday, Oct. 5. FRED data showed the 10-year yield at 5.31% and the 2-year yield at 4.84%, leaving the 10-year/2-year spread at 0.47 percentage point, or 47 basis points. The effective federal funds rate was 3.88%.

Other risk gauges were calm. The VIX finished at 15.52, and the high-yield option-adjusted spread stood at 3.12%. The broad trade-weighted dollar index published by the Fed was 121.27, while the dollar-tracking UUP fund rose 0.35% to 28.99.

The day's main scheduled release was the ISM services PMI for September, which came in at 54.9 against an estimate of 55.0 and a previous reading of 55.4. Within the survey, the prices index rose to 74.0 versus a 72.9 estimate, and the employment index printed 50.1 versus 48.0 expected. Business activity registered 56.5, below the 61.5 estimate, and new orders came in at 59.8 compared with a 60.3 forecast.

S&P Global's September services PMI was 58.8, slightly above the 58.7 estimate, and its composite PMI matched expectations at 58.4. The Conference Board employment trends index eased to 107.56 from 108.08. The all car sales figure for September was 2.52 million, compared with 2.74 million previously.

At Treasury bill auctions, the 3-month bill sold at 4.05%, below the 4.11% estimate, and the 6-month bill at 4.17%, down from 4.29% at the prior sale. Among the day's headlines, Fox Business aired a segment titled “It's time for Jerome Powell TO GO: Economist calls for Fed chair to resign.”

Data

Data: FMP, FRED. Figures are close-to-close unless stated.

In the news

• Fox Business: It's time for Jerome Powell TO GO: Economist calls for Fed chair to resign