IMF Warnings Lead Holiday Coverage; VIX at 15.21, HY Spread 3.11%
No U.S. data were released on Oct. 12; the VIX was 15.21 and the high-yield spread 3.11%, with the 10-year yield last at 5.24% as of Oct. 9.
The U.S. economic calendar had no releases on Monday, Oct. 12, the Columbus Day holiday, although stock trading took place. FRED's Treasury yield series did not update for the day, so the most recent readings date to Oct. 9: the 10-year yield at 5.24%, the 2-year at 4.80% and the 10-year/2-year spread at 0.44 percentage point.
Gauges that did update for Oct. 12 showed the VIX at 15.21 and the high-yield option-adjusted spread at 3.11%. The effective federal funds rate was 3.88%. The Fed's broad dollar index stood at 121.60 as of Oct. 9, while the UUP dollar fund rose 0.38% to 29.13 for the session.
The International Monetary Fund featured in several headlines. CNBC reported “IMF warns bond yields could see a 'disorderly' spike as debt, inflation risks worsen.” The Wall Street Journal reported “IMF Warns of Global Economic Setbacks as Shocks Test Resilience,” and a separate CNBC headline read “Global economy to slow less than expected in 2026 as AI boom offsets war hit: IMF.”
Currency coverage also referenced the dollar. The Wall Street Journal published “Asian Currencies Consolidate, But May be Weighed by Safe-Haven Demand for Greenback.”
In commodities, WTI crude futures rose 2.06% to $93.74, and FRED's WTI spot price was $94.99 for Oct. 12. Gold fell 0.61% to $4,190.60. In equities, SPY was nearly flat, down 0.06%, while QQQ fell 0.70%. Fox Business aired a segment titled “Only way to ease gas prices is to 'BUY FROM THE BAD GUY,' expert says.”
Data
| Indicator | Value | As of |
|---|---|---|
| 10-year Treasury yield | 5.24% | 2026-10-09 |
| 2-year Treasury yield | 4.80% | 2026-10-09 |
| 10y-2y spread | 0.44 pp | 2026-10-09 |
| Effective fed funds rate | 3.88% | 2026-10-12 |
| VIX | 15.21 | 2026-10-12 |
| High-yield OAS | 3.11% | 2026-10-12 |
| Broad dollar index | 121.60 | 2026-10-09 |
Data: FMP, FRED. Figures are close-to-close unless stated.
In the news
- CNBC: IMF warns bond yields could see a 'disorderly' spike as debt, inflation risks worsen
- WSJ: IMF Warns of Global Economic Setbacks as Shocks Test Resilience
- CNBC: Global economy to slow less than expected in 2026 as AI boom offsets war hit: IMF
- WSJ: Asian Currencies Consolidate, But May be Weighed by Safe-Haven Demand for Greenback
- Fox Business: Only way to ease gas prices is to 'BUY FROM THE BAD GUY,' expert says
Neutral market summary for information only; not investment advice.
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